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Coming into 2022, there was a level of uncertainty regarding the current and future state of the global air freight sector. The industry was in recovery mode, with more capacity slowly coming online as the passenger airlines added more flights and resumed more “normal” operations. Now, with the first half of 2022 behind us, there are some clear air freight trends that are impacting shippers as we move into the second half of the year.
For starters, the most recent report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that global demand for air freight decreased by 8.3% in May 2022 compared to May 2021, and that capacity was 2.7% above May 2021’s numbers (and up 5.7% for international operations). “This more than offset the 0.7% year-on-year drop in April,” IATA reports. “Capacity expanded in all regions with Asia-Pacific experiencing the largest growth.”
Measuring the Impacts
Right now, IATA says air cargo performance is being impacted by several factors:
- Trade activity ramped up slightly in May as lockdowns in China due to Omicron were eased.
- Emerging regions also contributed to growth with stronger volumes.
- New export orders, a leading indicator of cargo demand and world trade, decreased in all markets, except China.
- The war in Ukraine continues to impair cargo capacity used to serve Europe as several airlines based in Russia and Ukraine were key cargo players.
“May offered positive news for air cargo, most notably because of the easing of some Omicron restrictions in China,” Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said in a press release. “On a seasonally adjusted basis, we saw growth (0.3%) after two months of decline.”
Walsh goes on to say that the return of Asian production as COVID-19 measures eased—and particularly in China—will support demand for air cargo. “And the strong rebound in passenger traffic has increased belly capacity, although not always in the markets where the capacity crunch is most critical,” he added, “But uncertainty in the overall economic situation will need to be carefully watched.”
Rates are Rising, but Not as Quickly as 2021
Citing WorldACD Market Data’s statistics, American Journal of Transportation (AJOT) says that worldwide average air cargo rates remained “firm” and nearly 20% higher than they were last year at this time. It says WorldACD’s most recent report reveals an average worldwide rate increase of +1% and chargeable weight dropped by -1%; there was an increase in overall capacity of +1% compared with the preceding two weeks.
Compare this to last year at the same time, when there was a worldwide rate increase of +19% and a weight decline of -8%, at a capacity increase of +11%. On routes from Asia Pacific to Europe, AJOT says the average air cargo rates rose +3%, while chargeable weight rose +2%. In contrast, rates from Asia Pacific to North America dropped by -2% despite a +4% rise in chargeable weight.
Key Trends Impacting Air Freight
Looking at the key trends that are impacting air freight right now, AJOT singles out the boom in ecommerce sales, the continued scarcity of air cargo capacity and increased supply chain diversification as the “top three” issues. Other issues include rising shipping rates and the use of air freight to manage omnichannel distribution.
“Mainly as a result of customer demand, there are opportunities for air freight to become an omnichannel strategy,” it says. “Airlines are being forced to look beyond traditional airport-to-airport services, and are considering opportunities in the providing of end-to-end services. This has powerful implications for global logistics in 2022.”
Christoph Hemmann, EVP Head of Airfreight, DB Schenker Americas says, “As global supply chains continue to evolve, air freight may become even more important for shippers around the world. Pandemic-driven trends like the uptick in ecommerce order volumes may reshape the cargo industry entirely.” That drives the importance for a shipper to be working for an established and well-connected logistics company.
